Hmm. I think we'll have to agree to differ on most of those points, especially since they're about perceptions that'll only be shown to be true or false by history.

I recognise your point about the extent of what you've achieved by coalition, and apologise if I inadvertently sold you short but I think you may be underestimating how much of your popularity hinged on the pledge, unofficial or no. Time will tell.

It seems likely a referendum on independence would fail, but not necessarily by a large margin. The headlines don't tend to compare poll figures for "yes" against the poll figures for "no", as a real referendum would; they compare "yes" against everything else, including don't knows. Even then, I'm pretty sure a "no" vote wouldn't kill the SNP; even by many of their opponents' estimation they've done a good job over the last four years, and the proposed referndum was always going to be toward the end of the Holyrood term. A "no" vote would only mean no practical prospect of another referendum for a few terms.