miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
1, The Labservative parties will be equal (or as near as dammit) on vote share but Labour will nudge ahead on seats.

2, Seat distribution will be roughly as follows:
Lab - 277
Tory - 265
LD - 45
SNP - 35
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 4
Independent - 3
Kipper - 2
Green - 1
Deliberately not giving Respect a seat cos Galloway is toast. Kippers will retain Carswell but lose Reckless & probably gain Farage.

3, My big prediction is that turnout will be massively depressed: I genuinely think this will be the first UK GE with less than 50% turnout - if not quite THAT low then close to it. As we saw in Scotland, people will turn out if they feel there's some point in voting, that it'll make a difference. Over and over for the past four years all I've heard is that people don't see a difference between ANY of the big three, and while that partially explains rise in green and UKIP, people are not stupid, and know our electoral system doesn't favour insurgency and even if it did the biggest insurgent is hardly a massive change. I think they'll just stay home.

4, In terms of the practical result of all this?

Labour will fail at successful coalition negotiations because they can't give ground to anyone, and even if the tories try for one with us we'll not bite at special conference. Another coalition with the tories at this stage would be the death of the party and we all know it. Labour will therefore form a minority government. It will collapse, and we'll have another election by October. What'll happen at THAT one Cthulhu alone knows.

Don't worry, I shall have the eggs ready in May so that they can be applied liberally to my face ;)

Date: Sunday, January 4th, 2015 06:46 pm (UTC)
pseudomonas: (Default)
From: [personal profile] pseudomonas
"we'll not bite at special conference" A lot of the would-be non-biters have left and the payroll vote is proportionally larger. I really wouldn't put money on that.

Date: Sunday, January 4th, 2015 06:53 pm (UTC)
pseudomonas: (Default)
From: [personal profile] pseudomonas
Hope you're right, but frankly, not optimistic. The leadership can still too easily do a "we've learned our lesson, it'll be different this time, honest" schtick and get away with it.

Date: Sunday, January 4th, 2015 06:59 pm (UTC)
ext_51145: (Default)
From: [identity profile] andrewhickey.info
Given that something like 45% of the party want a change in leader, I *very* much doubt it...

Date: Sunday, January 4th, 2015 07:24 pm (UTC)
andrewducker: (Default)
From: [personal profile] andrewducker
Interesting to compare with http://electionforecast.co.uk/

I'm with you on (3).

And goodness knows what will happen with the negotiations.

Date: Monday, January 5th, 2015 03:05 am (UTC)
lilacsigil: 12 Apostles rocks, text "Rock On" (12 Apostles)
From: [personal profile] lilacsigil
Another coalition with the tories at this stage would be the death of the party and we all know it.

I really hope that this is true. Not the death of the party part, the part where everyone knows to stay away from the Tories.

Date: Monday, January 5th, 2015 09:30 am (UTC)
nickbarlow: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nickbarlow
On point 3, I don't think that will happen. I'd need to go look at the some of the polling, but I'm not aware of any trend showing a massive drop in likelihood to vote - and for a turnout below 50%, something noticeable would have happened by now.

And on 4, I think Labour will give ground - last time, there was a substantial chunk of the party who didn't want to carry on in government, and that was shown in them not taking negotiations seriously. And I'm not convinced that everyone in the party leadership thinks staying away from the Tories is a good idea.

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