miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
Like the BBC poll tracker, I've not changed much since January. In January, I said the seat distribution would be:
Lab - 277
Tory - 265
LD - 45
SNP - 35
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 4
Independent - 3
Kipper - 2
Green - 1
I'm going to amend that somewhat today, to:
Lab - 259
Tory - 266
LD - 45
SNP - 55
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 3
Speaker*** - 1
Independent/Other - 1
Kipper - 1
Green - 1
The biggest swap there has been from Lab to SNP*, and I do think the tories will be the biggest party, just, because of it. The Indy/Other I think will be an NHA candidate somewhere. UKIP are down to one because I now think the only seat they will keep is Carswell, and Farage won't win Thanet.

I still think nobody will offer the LDs enough to get a coalition past special conference, which means we are into pretty uncharted territory. I can't see even Labour having the brass balls to go for minority government in those circumstances, so maybe we'll end up doing a Belgium?

Anyway, I look forward to being hoist by my own petard on Friday, when this is all proved horrifically wrong... As for Calder Valley and Halifax, and my local council elections, I know what I expect to happen, and I know what I want to happen. We'll see how disappointed I am on Friday when Merran McRae reads the results out... ;)

* I know people with money on the LDs having more Scottish MPs than Labour on Friday**. While I think this will be the case, and that's what my prediction is based on above, I'm not brave enough to put money on it.
** The LD number hasn't shifted to the SNP at all, because I was already counting us losing most of Scotland in January. My prediction for the number of Scottish LDs is 3. No, I'm not naming names which 3, that would be cruel.
*** Bercow was originally elected as a Tory, but is bound to be impartial and can't vote in most circumstances

Date: Tuesday, May 5th, 2015 07:12 pm (UTC)
sir_guinglain: (Default)
From: [personal profile] sir_guinglain
A Tory colleague was crowing that Vince is 'for the chop' in Twickenham. I hope he's wrong.

Date: Tuesday, May 5th, 2015 08:48 pm (UTC)
andrewducker: (Default)
From: [personal profile] andrewducker
I really hope the LibDems do that well. I'm quite that optimistic, sadly.

Date: Wednesday, May 6th, 2015 05:23 am (UTC)
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)
From: [personal profile] matgb
I'm of the opinion that below 40 is very unlikely, 45 is at the low end of my numbers, has been for awhile, but it's pure speculation—I'm almost certain the polls are wrong in a number of places, and analysts are missing key behavioural points, but without access to all the data I used to have it's pure speculation and guesswork on my part.

From Andrew (DW's openID still borked)

Date: Wednesday, May 6th, 2015 07:09 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
I do hope you and Jennie are both right about this. I'll be ecstatic if so. I've been predicting 35, and been thinking myself possibly over-optimistic for doing so, but you two both know your stuff well enough that I'm, if not willing to believe you, certainly *more likely* to be unsurprised if we do that well.

Date: Saturday, May 9th, 2015 09:29 am (UTC)
doccy: (Default)
From: [personal profile] doccy
I want to live in the world where you were right.

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