miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
Like the BBC poll tracker, I've not changed much since January. In January, I said the seat distribution would be:
Lab - 277
Tory - 265
LD - 45
SNP - 35
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 4
Independent - 3
Kipper - 2
Green - 1
I'm going to amend that somewhat today, to:
Lab - 259
Tory - 266
LD - 45
SNP - 55
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 3
Speaker*** - 1
Independent/Other - 1
Kipper - 1
Green - 1
The biggest swap there has been from Lab to SNP*, and I do think the tories will be the biggest party, just, because of it. The Indy/Other I think will be an NHA candidate somewhere. UKIP are down to one because I now think the only seat they will keep is Carswell, and Farage won't win Thanet.

I still think nobody will offer the LDs enough to get a coalition past special conference, which means we are into pretty uncharted territory. I can't see even Labour having the brass balls to go for minority government in those circumstances, so maybe we'll end up doing a Belgium?

Anyway, I look forward to being hoist by my own petard on Friday, when this is all proved horrifically wrong... As for Calder Valley and Halifax, and my local council elections, I know what I expect to happen, and I know what I want to happen. We'll see how disappointed I am on Friday when Merran McRae reads the results out... ;)



* I know people with money on the LDs having more Scottish MPs than Labour on Friday**. While I think this will be the case, and that's what my prediction is based on above, I'm not brave enough to put money on it.
** The LD number hasn't shifted to the SNP at all, because I was already counting us losing most of Scotland in January. My prediction for the number of Scottish LDs is 3. No, I'm not naming names which 3, that would be cruel.
*** Bercow was originally elected as a Tory, but is bound to be impartial and can't vote in most circumstances
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