miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
I'm not convinced that it's to do with brexit, despite her speech. Labour have rubber-stamped or abstained on every single vote. She was getting brexit through with no trouble whatsoever, aside from noisy shouting from us and the SNP. Yes, she is gambling that Corbyn's crapness will give her a big majority. But it is a gamble; there's no certainties in politics.

There is one thing that's standing out to me, though... up to 20 tory MPs are under threat of prosecution. TMay has a working majority of 17. If even half of those look like successful prosecutions, that's potentially majority wiped out. TMay is going to know whether or not these MPs are guilty.

Calling an election now means that they won't be MPs by the time prosecutions go through. They'll quietly retire, and the news media will not pay as much attention to prosecutions of ex-MPs. The polls have the tories on a stonking lead. I think she's calculated it's worth the gamble. I'll say this for her: she's got massive brass balls. Whether that's enough... I hope it isn't.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 02:58 pm (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
We'll get a Tory here again (Skipton & Ripon) because we always do. In the last two general elections they had 27,000 odd votes and 37,000 odd votes, leaving every other choice miles behind. I expect that as the Lib Dems seem to be the only party that are talking any sense currently that they will get my vote. I just do not get how the Tories have a 20 point lead when the NHS, education, social care, transport etc etc etc is in such a mess. People in general are either dim or simply don't care, and that is sad.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 03:06 pm (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
Our MP has been Julian Smith since 2010. He's a Tory. Lib Dems usually do better here at local/county elections.

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 10:47 am (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
Still a bloody Tory, and I thought I'd read that he was in the Remain camp, but that voting record appears to show the opposite. Craven voted Leave only by 2,000 (18,961 Leave; 16,930 Remain), so at least there's a chance that some of those leave voters might be regretting their decision. I'm really trying not to build my hopes up this time round. I can't see past a huge Tory majority for the foreseeable future, if not the rest of my life. We seem to live in a mostly right-wing selfish country that takes what the Daily Mail/Express/Torygraph/Sun say as fact, not merely opinion.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 03:07 pm (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
That bloke is Shipley's MP.

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