miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
Lots and lots of partisan people who would probably be unlikely to vote Lib Dem anyway are saying things like I couldn't ever vote Lib Dem; they won't rule out coalition with Labour/the Tories.

You all know me.
You all know I am not backwards in coming forwards, and will happily call a spade a spade.

I, personally, will not rule out voting for a coalition with either the Tories or Labour.

That's right. Even now, even in this poisoned, febrile atmosphere, I would do a deal with either the red devil or the deep blue sea.

To agree to a coalition with either of them, they would have to agree to the following three things, for me:
  1. No brexit. At all. It's completely stopped.

  2. STV for all elections from this day forth, no exceptions, no referendums, just implemented.

  3. Useless waste of space of a leader to be replaced.
Without all three of those conditions being met as an absolute minimum, I, personally, would not vote for coalition with either Labour or Tories. I'd also quite like there to be a lot of stuff about guaranteeing the rights of immigrants and disabled people, and stopping the shafting of the poor, but those three things are the absolute minimum of the contents of an agreement I would consider. And for a coalition to happen, we have to call a special conference and two thirds of the attendees have to vote in favour of the deal offered. I'm not the most typical Lib Dem, but I'm not so far from the mainstream that I think that more than two thirds of the party would opt for a lesser deal than that.

We have learned from the coalition deal we voted through in all innocence last time, and I suspect that quite a lot of the party is a lot more cautious than it was.

So yeah, I'm not ruling out a coalition... but equally, I don't think it's very likely. Do you?

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 05:42 pm (UTC)
rmc28: Rachel smiling against background of trees, with newly-cut short hair (Default)
From: [personal profile] rmc28
I'm less bothered about 3, but 1 & 2 for sure.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 06:02 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] theandrewhickey
3 would be necessary for me with the Tories, because she's evil, but not with Labour because he's well-meaning enough.
I would have another condition though -- that the "Revoke Article 50 and STV For All Elections (Except By-Elections Which Can Be AV) Bill" be *the very first bill passed by the Government*, that it be a confidence motion, and that no other business of any kind be allowed until it had passed. I'm not letting them pull the "we'll reform the Lords Real Soon Now" trick.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 06:22 pm (UTC)
ms_katonic: (Default)
From: [personal profile] ms_katonic
Know what, I'd go for a coalition on those terms too - can't see the Tories going for it though! Labour might well go for the first, possibly the second if they're desperate enough (they will be desperate) but 3 might be another story. Depends if enough people can persuade JC that the sacrifice might be worth it. With regards to Labour's internal rules, unless he dies or resigns, we can only get rid of him if someone stands against him in a leadership election and wins.

Date: Friday, April 21st, 2017 11:26 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I think getting rid of Corbyn as Labour Leader requires some attention to the internal rules of the Labour Party - which might be difficult if he doesn't want to go.

Naving AN Other as Prime Minister whilst Corbyn remains Labour Party Leader is probably legally achievable.

Date: Friday, April 21st, 2017 12:54 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
That is probably a fair assessment.

On the other hand it's not clear that the leadership (i.e. Corbyn, his office and left of centre close supporters) could stop centre-left Labour MP's doing their own thing if they were determined to do so against his say so. This is not a likely situation and in the event that, say, 4/4ths of the PLP decided to back a coalition over the body of Corbyn then I think it's more likely that they are backing Tim Farron as PM of a government of national unity which includes the SNP and perhaps even a few Wet Tories than as the lead participants in a coalition.

It's all messy.

Date: Friday, April 21st, 2017 02:20 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam

No prospect of Lady Sturgeon of Dreghorn PM'ing from the Lords?

I think you are right in the unlikely situation where a rainbow coalition is on it probably needs someone from neither the Labour Party or the Lib Dems to head it, and not Alex Salmond or Angus Robertson from the SNP.

Lianne Woods or Ken Clarke?

Date: Friday, April 21st, 2017 02:23 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I'm in two minds about the prospects of the Lib Dems winning lots of seats. I can see a scenario where it happens and I can see an equally persuasive scenario where it doesn't. I feel much the same about the prospect of 59 SNP MP's. I can't quite get my head around the Unionist / Remain vote in Scotland and where they go.

I wake up each day thinking a different thing.

A bit like the Prime Minister.

Date: Friday, April 21st, 2017 04:23 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I am uncertain about Carmichael.

(I have worked with Liam McArthur in the past and was worried about his seat in 2016 and my dad lives on Orkney for part of the year.)

I was pleasantly surprised that Liam McArthur and Tavish Scott held their seats but if there is any seat in the UK where the voters have the ability to say Party X is okay, Individual Y is okay but Individual Z is dead to us it's the Northern Isles. Whether they have a sustained negative view of Carmichael I don't know.

I think the Labour Party might well hold Edinburgh South. I live in the constitutuency. In fact depending on which end of my sofa I'm sitting on I'm the most northerly constituent of a Labour MP in the country.

Ian Murray is a pretty decent constituency MP with a good local reputation who I think has probably benefited from his brief stint as Shadow Scottish Secretary.

My dad (the same one who lives in Orkney), also lives in Edinburgh South and is very active in the constituency Labour Party. It's a pretty well run and motivated local organisation as far as I can tell. Dad was election agent for Aberdeen South. I don't think he'd tolerate muppets running Edinburgh South. The SNP didn't manage to win Edinburgh South with 49.97% of the vote in 2015 and they didn't manage to win Edinburgh Southern in the Scottish GE in 2016. I think the Labour Party are pretty dug in Edinburgh South.

I'm also not sure about Mundell's seat. I don't know how the 7,700 Labour voters will see things. Will they prefer unionism under Mundell or the EU under Sturgeon? Ditto the 1,400 Lib Dem voters. Do they care more about the EU or the UK or about something else?

The next seat on the Tories list is Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - where bizarely I am also an elector. (My family collect marginal seats, it's a hobby passed down from great-grandfather who found the Battle of Cable Street not exciting enough). There are a lot of Lib Dems in that constitutency, over 10,000 and enough Labour voters to swing the constituency for Unionism or the EU. There are 7 constituencies where the Tories finished second to the SNP. In two of them, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Berwickshire etc there are large Lib Dem voting populations. In Dumfries and Galloway there are 13,000 Labour voters to 17,000 Tories and 23,000 SNP voters. In the other 4 the SNP got pretty much 50% or more of the vote.

I'm not saying the Tories won't win a seat or two in Scotland but I don't think they have an untroubled path anywhere.

The 8 seats in which the Lib Dems are second place look a little easier than the Tories options.

Date: Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 09:39 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] swaldman
Reading this a few weeks on, having followed a lot of links via liv and others.... I'm somebody who spent most of the last 5 years living in Orkney and now lives in Edinburgh South.

For Orkney & Shetland: I have no idea. Apart from that brief blip when somebody put him on the front benches, Carmichael has been a good local MP, and he has a loyal following, on top of a strong tradition of voting LD based, I think, on his predecessor. And as noted, it's somewhere where the individual really counts. On the other hand, that brief blip in power included the whole "ending up in court where it was admitted that he deliberately lied to the electorate" thing. Views were, and probably still are, split over that. And the Northern Isles were on a knife-edge two years ago... The SNP candidate has changed since last time, and I don't know which way that might push things.

For Edinburgh South, I haven't been here long, and it's harder to get a feel for this in an urban constituency anyway, but my gut says that Murray will probably stay. He's a very active and responsible local MP, and he rebelled over the A50 vote in one of the strongest Remain-voting constituencies in the country, and he had a bigger majority than Carmichael. It's difficult to predict how the SNP will do, especially with Leave/Yes voters, but I'm expecting them to lose ground nationally simply because the perfect conditions of 2015 aren't repeated.

On the other hand, Scottish Labour's campaign has been almost entirely "The SNP are evil, we'll prevent #indyref2", and it's possible that that will have pissed people off enough (not just Yes-voters, but people who object to single-issue campaigning) to dump him.

Eh. Random input from a stranger, there ;-)
Edited Date: Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 09:42 am (UTC)

Date: Thursday, June 8th, 2017 11:19 am (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
From: [personal profile] danieldwilliam
I can't disagree with anything you've said.

How did you find the political engagement processes in Orkney worked? Were they different from a city constituency or were party members still pushing leaflets through doors as the main way of reaching people?

Date: Thursday, June 8th, 2017 12:43 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] swaldman
There were still leaflets (although a lot of them seemed to be posted out - presumably due to low population density - which means that I'm now getting them in Edinburgh thanks to mail redirection).

But unlike an urban constituency there were hustings that people actually went to, the local radio station would interview the candidates and do live hustings, and there's a good chance that you actually knew them! I didn't know AC personally, but he was a second-degree connection on Facebook. Because there's only one constituency on the island, anybody you speak to day to day is in the same one, so it's more common for random conversations in shops, pubs, etc., to be about the local candidate rather than the party as a whole.

Orkney & Shetland's an odd one there, though - I was fairly well connected to AC because I lived in Orkney and so did he. Shetlanders might feel differently. I've remarked elsewhere that it's almost like he had two constituencies to look after, with two sets of surgeries and so forth - as well as one of the longest (in distance if not time) commutes to Westminster of any MP.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 06:29 pm (UTC)
norfolkian: Holtzmann from Ghostbusters licking a gun (Default)
From: [personal profile] norfolkian
Also, things were Not Good under the coalition, but they were Not As Bad as they are now. Part of me would happily return to the Tory/Lib Dem coalition in favour of this.

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 12:36 pm (UTC)
azdak: Face of Klimt's Music II (Default)
From: [personal profile] azdak
The thing I don't understand about this argument is that if the LibDems hadn't voted with the Tories, they couldn't have pushed through any of that horrible stuff at all - so wasn't it more a matter of "enabling" than "keeping on a leash"? (This is an honest question - I shall be voting Lib Dem because of Brexit, so I'm not trolling, and I suspect the LibDems got shafted by the Tories rather than being deliberately untrustworthy - but why didn't you all just refuse to vote with the Tories on all those austerity measures? Then they couldn't have passed them, right?)

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 03:22 pm (UTC)
azdak: Face of Klimt's Music II (Default)
From: [personal profile] azdak
Oh, I see. Thank you.

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 06:34 pm (UTC)
andrewducker: (Default)
From: [personal profile] andrewducker
That would be my #3 - "Both sides free to talk about what they wanted to do, and how they had to compromise."

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 07:20 pm (UTC)
nostalgia: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nostalgia
I admit I wouldn't vote LD in case they just made pals with the Tories again :(

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 07:29 pm (UTC)
nostalgia: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nostalgia
I think mine's SNP v Labour anyway. Mainly it's just that it didn't *feel* like the Tories were on a leash when there was that coallition going on, they were still massively evil and whatnot.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 07:34 pm (UTC)
nostalgia: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nostalgia
I'll probably go SNP again, because I like Nicola Sturgeon and because Labour have occasionally forgotten that their job is to actually oppose things that the Tories want.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 08:29 pm (UTC)
nostalgia: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nostalgia
My dad explained that I am only allowed to vote Tory if it's to keep out the BNP :)

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 11:51 pm (UTC)
ggreig: (Default)
From: [personal profile] ggreig
You could also consider putting them explicitly last on your STV ballot in the council elections on 4th May. Although that looks like a vote "for" them, if you've ordered all the other candidates above them, it's actually a vote to prefer everyone else to them. (Any candidates you don't assign an order to, you're effectively abstaining on.)

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 11:58 pm (UTC)
nostalgia: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nostalgia
OKay :)

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 10:21 pm (UTC)
wildeabandon: photo of me with wavy hair and gold lipstick (Default)
From: [personal profile] wildeabandon
Mmm. I personally would vote for a coalition for a lot less than that - basically, if I thought it would on balance be better for the country to do so, then I'd be willing to throw the party's long term future under a bus for it, but although I'm a liberal to the bone, I'll happily admit to being a fairweather lib dem, so I'm probably a lot less representative.

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 08:06 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] hano
Looking at this from the point of view of a Labour Party member, 2 and three are impossible demands. Not because we're necessarily opposed, a lot of us agree, but in the timescale needed to put a government together it can't be done. And, let's be realistic here, neither May nor Corbyn is going to give up their job to accommodate you.
Edited Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 08:06 am (UTC)

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 11:13 am (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
Oh, for 1. and 2. especially. I agree with you about May being worse than Corbyn. He seems like a nice bloke, but a PM? I'm not so sure.
I think one of the biggest shocks to a lot of people who are less politically aware after the referendum result was that their vote actually counted on that occasion, because there are so many "safe" seats. A system where every vote counted would be marvellous, and I guess STV is the best method there.
There was a good letter in the i this morning, pointing out that it was a shame that 2/3 of the population weren't required to implement Article 50 (as there needed to be 2/3 of MPs in favour of the snap election). There was another letter which pointed out that if it's OK for May to change her mind about holding a general election, why isn't it OK for the British people to change their mind about leaving the EU?

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 10:46 pm (UTC)
rhythmaning: (Default)
From: [personal profile] rhythmaning
Hallelujah!

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