Date: Friday, April 21st, 2017 04:23 pm (UTC)
danieldwilliam: (Default)
I am uncertain about Carmichael.

(I have worked with Liam McArthur in the past and was worried about his seat in 2016 and my dad lives on Orkney for part of the year.)

I was pleasantly surprised that Liam McArthur and Tavish Scott held their seats but if there is any seat in the UK where the voters have the ability to say Party X is okay, Individual Y is okay but Individual Z is dead to us it's the Northern Isles. Whether they have a sustained negative view of Carmichael I don't know.

I think the Labour Party might well hold Edinburgh South. I live in the constitutuency. In fact depending on which end of my sofa I'm sitting on I'm the most northerly constituent of a Labour MP in the country.

Ian Murray is a pretty decent constituency MP with a good local reputation who I think has probably benefited from his brief stint as Shadow Scottish Secretary.

My dad (the same one who lives in Orkney), also lives in Edinburgh South and is very active in the constituency Labour Party. It's a pretty well run and motivated local organisation as far as I can tell. Dad was election agent for Aberdeen South. I don't think he'd tolerate muppets running Edinburgh South. The SNP didn't manage to win Edinburgh South with 49.97% of the vote in 2015 and they didn't manage to win Edinburgh Southern in the Scottish GE in 2016. I think the Labour Party are pretty dug in Edinburgh South.

I'm also not sure about Mundell's seat. I don't know how the 7,700 Labour voters will see things. Will they prefer unionism under Mundell or the EU under Sturgeon? Ditto the 1,400 Lib Dem voters. Do they care more about the EU or the UK or about something else?

The next seat on the Tories list is Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - where bizarely I am also an elector. (My family collect marginal seats, it's a hobby passed down from great-grandfather who found the Battle of Cable Street not exciting enough). There are a lot of Lib Dems in that constitutency, over 10,000 and enough Labour voters to swing the constituency for Unionism or the EU. There are 7 constituencies where the Tories finished second to the SNP. In two of them, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Berwickshire etc there are large Lib Dem voting populations. In Dumfries and Galloway there are 13,000 Labour voters to 17,000 Tories and 23,000 SNP voters. In the other 4 the SNP got pretty much 50% or more of the vote.

I'm not saying the Tories won't win a seat or two in Scotland but I don't think they have an untroubled path anywhere.

The 8 seats in which the Lib Dems are second place look a little easier than the Tories options.
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