miss_s_b: (Politics: FU)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
Comment below with your seat predictions for the general election, in the following format, where x is your prediction:
Alliance 0 > x
Conservative 330 > x
DUP 8 > x
Green 1 > x
Independent 4 > x
Labour 229 > x
Liberal Democrat 9 > x
Official Monster Raving Loony 0 > x
Plaid Cymru 3 > x
Sinn Fein 4 > x
SDLP 3 > x
SNP 54 > x
Speaker 1 > x
UKIP 1 > x
UUP 2 > x
Others 0 > x

Total 649* > 650
The winner gets nothing but boasting rights and glory. Sorry; I'm both skint and disorganised, so arranging actual physical prizes is beyond my capabilities at the mo. And yes, I'm going to put my pixels where my mouth is. This is my (rather depressing) prediction:
Alliance 0 > 1
Conservative 330 > 449
DUP 8 > 7
Green 1 > 2
Independent 4 > 3
Labour 229 > 87
Liberal Democrat 9 > 44
Official Monster Raving Loony 0 > 0
Plaid Cymru 3 > 3
Sinn Fein 4 > 5
SDLP 3 > 3
SNP 54 > 44
Speaker 1 > 1
UKIP 1 > 0
UUP 2 > 1
Others 0 > 0

Total 649 > 650
I hope to God I'm wrong, but Labour are collapsing hard enough while their supporters still disdain Lib Dems enough that I worry that I'm not... And yeah, my predictions for the Northern Irish parties are based on nothing more than my ideas about natural churn, so I'm pretty relaxed that I might be way off about them.



* NB: total is currently 649 because of the death of Gerald Kaufman.

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 04:18 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] https://www.complicity.co.uk/blog/
Ignoring NI because I don't follow it in enough detail...

Conservative 330 > 405
Green 1 > 1
Labour 229 > 138
Liberal Democrat 9 > 40
Plaid Cymru 3 > 3
SNP 54 > 45
UKIP 1 > 0

Not depressing enough

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 04:23 pm (UTC)
po8crg: A cartoon of me, wearing a panama hat (Default)
From: [personal profile] po8crg
Alliance 0 > 1
Conservative 330 > 475
DUP 8 > 6
Green 1 > 2
Independent 4 > 1
Labour 229 > 80
Liberal Democrat 9 > 25
Official Monster Raving Loony 0 > 0
Plaid Cymru 3 > 4
Sinn Fein 4 > 5
SDLP 3 > 2
SNP 54 > 45
Speaker 1 > 1
UKIP 1 > 0
UUP 2 > 3
Others 0 > 0

Re: Not depressing enough

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:16 pm (UTC)
po8crg: A cartoon of me, wearing a panama hat (Default)
From: [personal profile] po8crg
My depression is really kicking my arse at the moment, so it my be colouring my perceptions a bit.

I think we could get a few seats from Layba - Vauxhall, Bermondsey/Old Southwark, Hornsey/Wood Green, the two Manchester seats, Bristol West, but there aren't that many that are both winnable and Remainy, which is going to be a problem in places like Burnley and Redcar - and I don't see us cutting deep enough for something like Islington S or Manchester Central. And, while we'll get back all of that SW London curve from the Tories, and the two Stockport seats and places like OxWaB, Bath is the only SW England Remain target that's Tory-held - and I think they can take so many votes from UKIP across most of the SW to stop us gaining more than a handful.

On the other side, the Tories could pile up seats. They'll take every Labour seat in the South East region. They could flip nearly all of the West Midlands - as in, winning half of Birmingham and getting into Wolverhampton and Walsall - and I don't think there is much Labour left in the East Midlands outside of the super-safe city seats in Leicester, Derby and Nottingham; if there is, it's gone. Heywood and Middleton, both Boltons, both Burys, Worsley & Eccles South, Stalybridge. Halifax, half of Leeds. Just anything Labour with any kind of suburban bits in it. Even maybe St Helens North (I had a chat with my parents and they're thinking of tactially voting Layba even though they know and hate their MP). The way things are going in Wales, they could win the Valleys, and they're a cert to win the whole of Clwyd.

Leave got 52% and I suspect the Conservative Remain vote will be similar to the non-Conservative Leave vote, after UKIP completes melting down and people who went Labour-2015, Leave-2016 go Tory. Put the Tories on 53%, UKIP on 4% and us on 15% and there just isn't much left for Labour.

Re: Not depressing enough

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:25 pm (UTC)
po8crg: A cartoon of me, wearing a panama hat (Default)
From: [personal profile] po8crg
Hope so.

This is the seat where my parents are thinking about needing to tactically vote Labour to keep the Tories out.

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 04:59 pm (UTC)
haggis: (Default)
From: [personal profile] haggis
You have SNP going from 54 to 45. Not disagreeing but wondering where you see those seats going?

(I'm not playing this game, it's a bit too hardcore political nerdery for my limited understanding!)

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:20 pm (UTC)
po8crg: A cartoon of me, wearing a panama hat (Default)
From: [personal profile] po8crg
We'd get East Dunbartonshire, Ed West and maybe Fife NE or Ross, Skye and Lochaber.

Tories will get East Renfrewshire, the two Borders seats they don't already have, possibly an Edinburgh seat, WANK, and some other Aberdeenshire/Grampian seats.

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:29 pm (UTC)
haggis: (Default)
From: [personal profile] haggis
WANK?

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:32 pm (UTC)
po8crg: A cartoon of me, wearing a panama hat (Default)
From: [personal profile] po8crg
West Aberdeenshire 'N' Kincardine.

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:32 pm (UTC)
haggis: (Default)
From: [personal profile] haggis
Lol.

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 06:38 pm (UTC)
ggreig: (Default)
From: [personal profile] ggreig
Davidson has had a horrendous few days defending the rape clause and family cap, for anyone paying attention. Sadly of course, that may not be most of the population. Kezia Dugdale's speech is worth watching (even though some of her less important facts are a bit wobbly - ten years of Tory government? Only if you include Gordon Brown!). Look at the shot of the Tory benches as she brings her speech to a close.

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 05:10 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] sassy_scot
You know I only clicked on here because I saw the word Gin, don't you?

Date: Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 11:25 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] theandrewhickey
These are my predictions as of *right now*, but a month is a VERY long time in politics...
Not going to do every seat because I don't understand the dynamics of some of them very well, but I'm going to say that Lab will get about 170, we'll get about 25, and the Tories will increase by about forty -- I think there'll be a certain amount of reversion to the mean, and in particular Labour will keep more seats than you'd expect just through low turnout and apathy.

Date: Thursday, April 27th, 2017 07:37 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] theandrewhickey
I hope you're right, obviously, but I don't see us getting back almost to where we were this quickly.

Date: Friday, April 28th, 2017 01:27 pm (UTC)
strange_complex: (Mariko Mori crystal ball)
From: [personal profile] strange_complex
Ooh, how did I miss this post when you first did it? General busyness probably, but glad to have just found it via your latest links post. Anyway, this is what I reckon, although I have regrouped the parties so that I could see things which are directly related alongside each other. I'm afraid I am considerably more pessimistic about our own chances than you are, although that's probably a fairly healthy place to be starting from.


Conservative 330 > 400
Labour 229 > 158
Liberal Democrat 9 > 22
Green 1 > 1
UKIP 1 > 0
Independent 4 > 2
Official Monster Raving Loony 0 > 0
Plaid Cymru 3 > 3
SNP 54 > 46
Alliance 0 > 1
DUP 8 > 6
SDLP 3 > 3
Sinn Fein 4 > 6
UUP 2 > 1
Others 0 > 0
Speaker 1 > 1

Total 649* > 650

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