[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson

On the Betfair exchange CON now clear favourites to win most seats

With so any polls this week showing CON and LAB level-pegging or the blues ahead it’s inevitable that this was going to show on the betting markets. The money’s been going on them winning most seats and, as can be seen, there’s now quite a difference with the Labour price.

In betting terms the last time CON was at these level was in the aftermath of Cameron’s EU veto in December 2011. That was not to last as we saw in the mood change following the March 2012 Osborne budgets.

Everything has been helped by the Labour polling collapse in Scotland of which more to come next week from Lord Ashcroft.

The chart also shows the changes on three weeks ago when LAB had a slight margin.

    Clearly punters are betting on the trend not the actual numbers because level-pegging or a couple of points ahead is not sufficient to secure most seats

It is one of the facts of political betting that Tory punters react more to positive news about the party than Labour ones do. Theoretically this makes Labour the value bet but I’m doing nothing till I see the Ashcroft Scottish seats polls.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

A rock, a paper, a scissors, a bunch of lizards

Friday, January 30th, 2015 11:15 am
[syndicated profile] improbable_research_feed

Posted by Marc Abrahams

Hannah Fry, in this Numberphile video, tots up the cases of rock-paper-scissors mathematics as applied to lizards:

This goes back, more or less, to a sex study published in the year 2000:

Polygyny, mate-guarding, and posthumous fertilization as alternative male mating strategies,” Kelly R. Zamudio and Barry SinervoPNAS, 2000 97 (26) 14427-14432.

Here’s a photo of rock-paper-scissors/lizards researcher Kelly Zamudio, of Cornell University, sitting on a pile of sand with a colleague:


AKA Jessica Jones: Rachael Taylor to play a superhero?

Friday, January 30th, 2015 08:58 am
[syndicated profile] den_of_geek_feed

Posted by rleane

Rob Leane News Jan 30, 2015

Grey’s Anatomy star Rachael Taylor will play Patricia Walker, who becomes Hellcat, in Marvel’s AKA Jessica Jones Netflix series…

It's too early for whisky, I suppose

Friday, January 30th, 2015 10:46 am
strangecharm: (Default)
[personal profile] strangecharm
I was accused of shoplifting on leaving the Asian supermarket across the road from here, where I go all the time and had honestly just been thinking about how great it was. I didn't understand what the guy was saying at first or why he wanted me to follow him back into the store, so he dragged me by my bag, which was over my shoulder so the strap cut into my neck when the guy yanked on it, and had even the pockets of my jacket and my hoodie dug through. Another guy (who I think works the fish market at the back of the store and tipped off the guy who was doing most of the intimidation) came in the little room to "help" I guess, he was totally sure there was something in my bag and they both looked through it repeatedly before admitting that there was nothing there and saying sorry.

I left in a hurry, immediately trying to figure out how this could've happened. The only things I can think of are that I had a bunch of stuff in my bag already (DVDs [personal profile] magister has asked me to pass along to Andrew) or that it took me a long time to find some of the things I was looking for because some of the labels on things are hard for me to read. I couldn't figure out why I was desperate to explain this until I realized that I need to reassure myself that it's safe to go back there. Because I do love that place! Lots of cheap food and stuff that's impossible to get elsewhere, and it's the closest store to my house.

I thought I was fine but I got home and dropped the shopping (I had spent twenty quid in there! usual behavior for a shoplifter I suppose, that) and burst into tears.

Sod's law would have it that Andrew's at work today, when usually he works from home on a Friday, and the nearby people I'd next go to are in York or on their way to Brussels. So I've had to write it out to calm myself down enough to put the food away and do some laundry and all the stuff I want to do today.

Interesting Links for 30-01-2015

Friday, January 30th, 2015 11:00 am

Kim Sears’ Profanisaurus to be out for Christmas

Friday, January 30th, 2015 10:20 am
[syndicated profile] newsarse_feed

Posted by Editor

Kims-sears-profanisaurus-largeAndy Murray's fiance Kim Sears has signed a lucrative publishing deal to produce a range of books teaching poor people how to swear properly.

Took Problem Chimp to the Ideal Home Show

Friday, January 30th, 2015 09:55 am
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[personal profile] digitalraven
Half Man Half Biscuit at the Liquid Room tomorrow. Anyone here going?
[syndicated profile] newsarse_feed

Posted by Neil Tollfree

snowbastard-largeWeather forecasters claim the North of England is being threatened by an enormous snowbastard, on what is thought to be the most hyperbolic day of the winter so far.

My must-reads this week January 30, 2015

Friday, January 30th, 2015 09:30 am
[syndicated profile] stephentall_links_feed

Posted by Stephen Tall

Here’s some of the articles that have caught my attention this week…

And now the Welsh Tories squabble in public

Friday, January 30th, 2015 08:10 am
[syndicated profile] peter_black_am_feed
When you have a divided group it does not always pay to table a motion to the Welsh Assembly on the issue that divides you. However, that is precisely what the Welsh Conservatives did last week when the initiated a debate on the M4 extension around Newport.  The results were predictable.

The Western Mail reports that the differences between Tory AMs over the M4 Relief Road led to a public spat on social media, with one accusing another of sending spoof tweets.

The paper says that the Welsh Tories claim their position on the motorway is clear after all its members, bar two that couldn’t take part, backed a motion calling for a review of the project that includes a much feted alternative known as the Blue Route.

However, the very next day two Tory AMs reacted to two tweets sent by William Graham backing the Welsh Government’s preferred Black Route, with Antoinette Sandbach suggesting Mr Graham’s tweets ran contrary to the Tory motion voted on Wednesday. The Tory transport spokesman Byron Davies, jumped in by suggesting that Mr Graham’s entire account was a “spoof”:

During Wednesday’s Welsh Conservative debate on the M4 Mr Davies called for clarity over how the Black Route has been decided upon as the preferred route.

In an earlier press conference he said: “We would like to see the Welsh Government go back to the drawing board on it and consider the Blue Route,” adding later: “Does it have to be a motorway?”

But on Wednesday Mr Graham tweeted: “I am confident that when the public inquiry is held the Black Route will be chosen.”

He added: “It has always been Conservative policy that a motorway solution is required for the M4 around Newport.”

Mr Davies told in reply on Thursday: “Could this be a spoof account? @williamgrahamam I know so well, voted in favour of the Welsh Conservative motion yesterday.”

Mr Graham replied: “No conflict between motion and Black Route. Confident Black Route will be chosen at public enquiry.”

“Ah – confirmed, definitely a spoof account,” said Mr Davies.

Mr Graham later confirmed his tweets were genuine.

He said: “He’s trying to make out that the motion we voted for yesterday was against the Black Route. It’s not. It calls for inclusion of the Blue Route within the examination. I have no problem with including the Blue Route. I don’t think it will stand up.”

At about the same time North Wales AM Antionette Sandbach, also a Conservative, said: “Pity @williamgrahamam not willing to put his vote where his principles allegedly are. I was taught actions speak louder than words.

“What price principles? Public inquiry excludes Blue Route, whole point of the motion to get that position reviewed,” she said, adding Mr Graham’s Twitter name to the tweet.

You could not make it up.

2015: the year Netflix got serious

Thursday, January 29th, 2015 11:03 am
[syndicated profile] den_of_geek_feed

Posted by louisamellor

James Peckham Feature Jan 30, 2015

Between Marvel, sitcoms, and returning favourites, Netflix is producing more and more original content, here's what we can expect in 2015...

Adventures on the Delhi Metro

Friday, January 30th, 2015 04:52 am
[syndicated profile] liberal_bureaucracy_feed

Posted by Mark Valladares

I could imagine that arriving in a strange city at 6.35 a.m. could be quite stressful, especially one that assaults the senses as Delhi does, with its noise and its poverty. And, even though I am a relatively seasoned traveller, particularly in India, a sleepless night on an aeroplane is not the ideal way to start a trip.

Having booked a hotel some way from the airport, and not being too keen on local taxis - let's just say that the traffic is diabolical, the driving slightly worse - I had decided to try the Metro system, something the locals are quite proud of. So, what do I think?

Well, as a first impression, it lacks a certain something, i.e. ticket machines that work, although a very polite and helpful young man did sell me a token for the Airport Express to New Delhi Railway Station, for the princely sum of 100 Rupees (about £1.10) - very cheap by international standards. It isn't really designed for people with luggage though, as they insist on screening your bag and making you pass through one of those metal detectors.

The train, however, is clean, quick and, surprisingly, rather empty. Mind you, the fare is extortionate by local standards. In just twenty minutes, the train speeds into the centre and, if that had been all that I had to do, it would have been fine. However, I still had two more rides, in the middle of the morning rush, on the equally clean, but rather cheaper and busier normal metro lines.

Stopping only to purchase a 19 Rupees ticket to Rithala, at the end of the Red Line, I then had to join a long queue to pass through security (not very serious but time-consuming, nonetheless). Despite that, the Yellow Line train to Kashmere Gate was pretty quiet. It was there that things got a bit more lively, as the connecting Red Line train was much busier. It had, however, emptied out by the time it arrived at Rithala, where I learned that the locals haven't really got the hang of letting people off of the train first. Confronted with a wall of people, I was obliged to force my way through them, running a few of them over with my luggage in the process.

I did get to my hotel, however, and was checked in by 9.30. So now my game plan is a gentle nap, followed by lunch. The afternoon will sort itself out, I guess...
[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson

You can still get 4/1 on him for the nomination

Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan to be next London Mayor when the price was 33/1. Henry’s record on Labour matters is usually pretty good and I was amongst many who got on at that price.

Henry’s reasoning was that Khan had, at the time, just been made Labour’s shadow minister or London – a role that would allow him real links with all parts of the party in the capital and a platform to build up his profile.

In last May’s elections Labour’s biggest success was in London and Khan got much of the credit.

Until now Sadiq hasn’t really registered in the regular Evening Standard YouGov London polls but that has now changed with the latest survey. He’s made a big jump as the favoured candidate of London party supporters and now stands just 7% behind Tessa Jowell who probably enjoys greater name recognition. Coverage like that in the latest Standard is going to further Khan’s position.

You can get 4/1 from William Hill on him winning the party nomination and 6/1 as next Mayor. The latter looks particularly tasty.

Once again well done Henry for his advice.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

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Hello! I'm Jennie (known to many as SB, due to my handle, or The Yorksher Gob because of my old blog's name). This blog is my public face; click here for a list of all the other places you can find me on t'interwebs.

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