miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
1, The Labservative parties will be equal (or as near as dammit) on vote share but Labour will nudge ahead on seats.

2, Seat distribution will be roughly as follows:
Lab - 277
Tory - 265
LD - 45
SNP - 35
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 4
Independent - 3
Kipper - 2
Green - 1
Deliberately not giving Respect a seat cos Galloway is toast. Kippers will retain Carswell but lose Reckless & probably gain Farage.

3, My big prediction is that turnout will be massively depressed: I genuinely think this will be the first UK GE with less than 50% turnout - if not quite THAT low then close to it. As we saw in Scotland, people will turn out if they feel there's some point in voting, that it'll make a difference. Over and over for the past four years all I've heard is that people don't see a difference between ANY of the big three, and while that partially explains rise in green and UKIP, people are not stupid, and know our electoral system doesn't favour insurgency and even if it did the biggest insurgent is hardly a massive change. I think they'll just stay home.

4, In terms of the practical result of all this?

Labour will fail at successful coalition negotiations because they can't give ground to anyone, and even if the tories try for one with us we'll not bite at special conference. Another coalition with the tories at this stage would be the death of the party and we all know it. Labour will therefore form a minority government. It will collapse, and we'll have another election by October. What'll happen at THAT one Cthulhu alone knows.

Don't worry, I shall have the eggs ready in May so that they can be applied liberally to my face ;)
miss_s_b: (Mood: Cleaning)

Ten resolutions:

  1. Make less commitments to do stuff I know I won't have the time or energy to do, thus disappointing less people. I am really bad for this. My brain is relentlessly optimistic about what I will have the spoons for, and I say to people I can do that! and then other commitments or a bad day of depression get in the way, and then I feel guilty, and then I beat myself up... It's not a good cycle.

  2. Join the gym at the bottom of the road as soon as health and finances permit, and get back to some reasonable standard of fitness. Also make progress at karate, once I am allowed to go back to doing it. I hate being enfeebled so much. It makes me grumpy, and that's not good for my mental health.

  3. Clean out my various messages, inboxes, and such at least once per week. Also tag lists and f-lists on a regular basis. My gmail inbox, for example, is currently at 355 unread messages and over 1000 total. This is not sensible or healthy, and it adds to my stress needlessly.

  4. Finalise the design for, and get Bob to tattoo my sci-fi sleeve. I have a picture in my head what this should look like, but I need to get it on paper. And then on flesh.

  5. Sort out and stick to a cleaning rota. I know I say this every year, but it really needs doing. I think I am going to have to timetable myself, but I'll have to be careful about doing it so as to not transgress 1.

  6. Schedule at least one hour of total downtime every day. If I don't have time where I am not doing ANYTHING my brain frazzles very quickly. I need to have a period where I am not committed to cleaning or work or blog posting or everything, when I can just relax.

  7. Book an Actual Holiday. For the last few years my only holiday time has been for conferences or for the FFW, and then odd weekends here and there. This year I want to have at least a week where I go away and am not committed to do anything while I am away.

  8. Leave the house at least once per day, if only to walk the dogs. I have a tendency, especially on my day off, to not get out of bed at all. This is almost certainly not healthy.

  9. Keep on top of finances. Yes, I say this every year too. But things are so tight at the moment that if I don't keep on top of them there is a serious risk of the problems becoming insurmountable.

  10. Spend more time with the people I love. I need to make more effort to schedule quality time with Holly, and Mat, and James, and all my friends, and spend less time sitting in bed and wishing I was spending time with the people I love.
You may have noticed that there's a pattern to my resolutions this year: they mostly involve things which will improve my mental health. This is important: I have spent a lot of the last couple of years feeling stressed, embattled, and run down. I need to do something(s) about that, for my own sanity and the sanity of those I live with.

Ten Predictions:

  1. The coalition will still be together at the end of the year. I think we're in this for the long haul.

  2. Clegg and Cameron will still be leaders of their respective parties, but Milli(E) will be ousted. Slightly Pink Ed is a rubbish leader, the PLP don't like him, and there are rumblings of discontent from activists too. He doesn't seem able to lead in the fashion that a party constructed in the way the Labour party is needs. I'll be amazed if he lasts.

  3. The AV referendum will be won by the Yes campaign, but by a very narrow margin. And there will be wranglings about it for a very long time.

  4. Lib Dems will continue to slide in the opinion polls until after the AV referendum. This will be mainly due to the continued and continual misrepresentation of us and everything about us by the media, especially the Daily Fail. Such misrepresentation will continue after the referendum, but if the Yes campaign win then the public will further recognise that actually there is a point to us and we can achieve things, even in the teeth of total opposition from all segments of the MSM.

  5. We'll see the first proper companion death in Doctor Who since Adric. But will it be Rory or Amy? My money is on Rory.

  6. One of the big free internet services will totally collapse. Given the events of recent days, I'll say Skype, but it could be twitter or even Faceache.

  7. Colin Firth will win the best actor Oscar for The King's Speech. And even though he's slagging off the party now, I don't begrudge him it.

  8. The second series of Sherlock will be awesome. Yeah, I know, but I had to put in one total no-brainer.

  9. I will fail to keep at least half of my resolutions above, but that won't matter, because...

  10. [personal profile] magister and [personal profile] matgb and I are going to find a nice house we can all live in together. And it will have a garden, with a shed. And we can all look after each other and it will be ace.



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Hello! I'm Jennie (known to many as SB, due to my handle, or The Yorksher Gob because of my old blog's name). This blog is my public face; click here for a list of all the other places you can find me on t'interwebs.







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