miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
I'm not convinced that it's to do with brexit, despite her speech. Labour have rubber-stamped or abstained on every single vote. She was getting brexit through with no trouble whatsoever, aside from noisy shouting from us and the SNP. Yes, she is gambling that Corbyn's crapness will give her a big majority. But it is a gamble; there's no certainties in politics.

There is one thing that's standing out to me, though... up to 20 tory MPs are under threat of prosecution. TMay has a working majority of 17. If even half of those look like successful prosecutions, that's potentially majority wiped out. TMay is going to know whether or not these MPs are guilty.

Calling an election now means that they won't be MPs by the time prosecutions go through. They'll quietly retire, and the news media will not pay as much attention to prosecutions of ex-MPs. The polls have the tories on a stonking lead. I think she's calculated it's worth the gamble. I'll say this for her: she's got massive brass balls. Whether that's enough... I hope it isn't.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:41 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth

The libdem is likely to be either our letting agent, or a mate of his - they're very weak in this constituency. And sadly, that's another reason I wouldn't vote for them in here.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:48 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: (Wales)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
Us and Labour. Labour is associated with some of the failures at Cardiff Bay and in the local council - Carms Council was frequently in Rotten Boroughs until we took over, and in 2 years has gone from the bottom of the Welsh Audit Office's rankings to near the top.

The problem we have is S.Pembs - they're solidly, mindlessly Tory.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:56 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
I'm a Plaid member. I tend to be careful about stating my party allegiances, because I'm a pragmatist, rather than an ideologue. I used to be Libdem - campaigned in Cambridge a few times - but got very disillusioned by some of the nastiness in the campaigns, especially in Ceredigion.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 01:08 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
Yeah - especially when you have anti-Plaid media like the Cambrian News. Lib Dems would say something preposterous about Mike, then feed it to the ed at CN. CN would publish it, then find themselves having to apologise or face a libel writ. It was a really nasty campaign.

What's been good is the emergence of the Herald group of newspapers - they're far more politically neutral, as they're not establishment in the way that Trinity Mirror or the CN's publishers are. And the evidence is that their circulation is improving, as they actually do Good Journalism.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 02:31 pm (UTC)
ggreig: (Default)
From: [personal profile] ggreig
They've gubbed the Scotsman too (although TBF it was already on the slide, ever since Andrew Neil was editor in the 90s under the Barclay brothers). It used to be quite a liberal broadsheet.

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