miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
[personal profile] miss_s_b
I'm not convinced that it's to do with brexit, despite her speech. Labour have rubber-stamped or abstained on every single vote. She was getting brexit through with no trouble whatsoever, aside from noisy shouting from us and the SNP. Yes, she is gambling that Corbyn's crapness will give her a big majority. But it is a gamble; there's no certainties in politics.

There is one thing that's standing out to me, though... up to 20 tory MPs are under threat of prosecution. TMay has a working majority of 17. If even half of those look like successful prosecutions, that's potentially majority wiped out. TMay is going to know whether or not these MPs are guilty.

Calling an election now means that they won't be MPs by the time prosecutions go through. They'll quietly retire, and the news media will not pay as much attention to prosecutions of ex-MPs. The polls have the tories on a stonking lead. I think she's calculated it's worth the gamble. I'll say this for her: she's got massive brass balls. Whether that's enough... I hope it isn't.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 11:25 am (UTC)
lilacsigil: 12 Apostles rocks, text "Rock On" (12 Apostles)
From: [personal profile] lilacsigil
Maybe she's just determined to get an election before Labour eventually gets rid of Corbyn? But yes, mass prosecutions is also a good reason.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:00 pm (UTC)
makamu: (Default)
From: [personal profile] makamu
That's interresting - as a non-British Anglophile who gets her British news from Auntie Beep, I was not aware of that angle... But it truly looks like we are all living in interesting times indeed.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:08 pm (UTC)
makamu: (favourite Tolkien quote by brouhaha)
From: [personal profile] makamu
That explains it - thanks for the information

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:20 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
I think I agree with that analysis.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:31 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: (Wales)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
Nope. I'm hoping we get a candidate selected sharpish. I liked our candidate at the last general, but he wasn't very charismatic

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:41 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth

The libdem is likely to be either our letting agent, or a mate of his - they're very weak in this constituency. And sadly, that's another reason I wouldn't vote for them in here.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:48 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: (Wales)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
Us and Labour. Labour is associated with some of the failures at Cardiff Bay and in the local council - Carms Council was frequently in Rotten Boroughs until we took over, and in 2 years has gone from the bottom of the Welsh Audit Office's rankings to near the top.

The problem we have is S.Pembs - they're solidly, mindlessly Tory.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 12:56 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
I'm a Plaid member. I tend to be careful about stating my party allegiances, because I'm a pragmatist, rather than an ideologue. I used to be Libdem - campaigned in Cambridge a few times - but got very disillusioned by some of the nastiness in the campaigns, especially in Ceredigion.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 01:08 pm (UTC)
angelofthenorth: Sooffocles with me in background (Default)
From: [personal profile] angelofthenorth
Yeah - especially when you have anti-Plaid media like the Cambrian News. Lib Dems would say something preposterous about Mike, then feed it to the ed at CN. CN would publish it, then find themselves having to apologise or face a libel writ. It was a really nasty campaign.

What's been good is the emergence of the Herald group of newspapers - they're far more politically neutral, as they're not establishment in the way that Trinity Mirror or the CN's publishers are. And the evidence is that their circulation is improving, as they actually do Good Journalism.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 01:10 pm (UTC)
dancefloorlandmine: Me pointing at camera (Kitchener)
From: [personal profile] dancefloorlandmine
The Golgafrinchan captain's solution does seem appealing.

Date: Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 02:31 pm (UTC)
ggreig: (Default)
From: [personal profile] ggreig
They've gubbed the Scotsman too (although TBF it was already on the slide, ever since Andrew Neil was editor in the 90s under the Barclay brothers). It used to be quite a liberal broadsheet.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 12:28 pm (UTC)
vampwillow: my eyes go red when I'm angry (anger)
From: [personal profile] vampwillow
Mayhem has said she supports the iffy MPs restanding (whether they actually do so we're yet to see) but I think you're right that that is the real reason for the unseemly haste. In any rational calculation one would wait until after the locals are over.

I note that just now she is again saying that it is about "improving the Government's hand in the Brexit negotiations" as though it mattered. Every country around the world when it negotiates or discusses things between nations *automatically* has the 'strength' of the entire nation behind it; the parochial matter of the number of MPs is and forever will be utterly irrelevant...

I'm just losing it at the moment as I have absolutely zero understanding of why anyone would support her or the Tories. Can't they see how destructive she'd been??????

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 02:58 pm (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
We'll get a Tory here again (Skipton & Ripon) because we always do. In the last two general elections they had 27,000 odd votes and 37,000 odd votes, leaving every other choice miles behind. I expect that as the Lib Dems seem to be the only party that are talking any sense currently that they will get my vote. I just do not get how the Tories have a 20 point lead when the NHS, education, social care, transport etc etc etc is in such a mess. People in general are either dim or simply don't care, and that is sad.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 03:06 pm (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
Our MP has been Julian Smith since 2010. He's a Tory. Lib Dems usually do better here at local/county elections.

Date: Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 03:07 pm (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
That bloke is Shipley's MP.

Date: Thursday, April 20th, 2017 10:47 am (UTC)
anisiriusmagus: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anisiriusmagus
Still a bloody Tory, and I thought I'd read that he was in the Remain camp, but that voting record appears to show the opposite. Craven voted Leave only by 2,000 (18,961 Leave; 16,930 Remain), so at least there's a chance that some of those leave voters might be regretting their decision. I'm really trying not to build my hopes up this time round. I can't see past a huge Tory majority for the foreseeable future, if not the rest of my life. We seem to live in a mostly right-wing selfish country that takes what the Daily Mail/Express/Torygraph/Sun say as fact, not merely opinion.

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