Sunday, January 4th, 2015

miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
1, The Labservative parties will be equal (or as near as dammit) on vote share but Labour will nudge ahead on seats.

2, Seat distribution will be roughly as follows:
Lab - 277
Tory - 265
LD - 45
SNP - 35
(Northern Ireland I'm not confident to predict so their 18 go here)
Plaid - 4
Independent - 3
Kipper - 2
Green - 1
Deliberately not giving Respect a seat cos Galloway is toast. Kippers will retain Carswell but lose Reckless & probably gain Farage.

3, My big prediction is that turnout will be massively depressed: I genuinely think this will be the first UK GE with less than 50% turnout - if not quite THAT low then close to it. As we saw in Scotland, people will turn out if they feel there's some point in voting, that it'll make a difference. Over and over for the past four years all I've heard is that people don't see a difference between ANY of the big three, and while that partially explains rise in green and UKIP, people are not stupid, and know our electoral system doesn't favour insurgency and even if it did the biggest insurgent is hardly a massive change. I think they'll just stay home.

4, In terms of the practical result of all this?

Labour will fail at successful coalition negotiations because they can't give ground to anyone, and even if the tories try for one with us we'll not bite at special conference. Another coalition with the tories at this stage would be the death of the party and we all know it. Labour will therefore form a minority government. It will collapse, and we'll have another election by October. What'll happen at THAT one Cthulhu alone knows.

Don't worry, I shall have the eggs ready in May so that they can be applied liberally to my face ;)

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Hello! I'm Jennie (known to many as SB, due to my handle, or The Yorksher Gob because of my old blog's name). This blog is my public face; click here for a list of all the other places you can find me on t'interwebs.



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