Tuesday, April 18th, 2017

miss_s_b: (Default)
At 10.15am our beloved Prime Minister TMay announced that she would be making an unexpected statement from the steps of Downing Street at 11.15am.

Political Twitter has gone mental. It's an absolute frenzy. And it's joyous.

I've seen loads of reasons postulated for her statement:
  1. The Queen is dead (unlikely; she'd announce that to parliament first)

  2. She's no confidencing her own government to force an early election


  4. War with North Korea, probably holding Donald's hand.

  5. She's resinging on health/personal grounds

  6. They're finally arresting Blair for war crimes (this feels vanishingly unlikely to me; Teflon Tony)

  7. Northern Ireland is being given Home Rule

  8. Stormont is being mothballed and they're taking control of Northern Ireland back to Westminster

  9. Indyref2: this time it's personal.

  10. She's the new Doctor Who, she's found some lost episodes of Doctor Who, she wants the nation to unite behind An Actor who will be the new Doctor Who, she's handing power to a mysterious but charismatic Mr Saxon, and lots of other Who-related rumours (look, politics geeks are Who geeks, it's just a thing, OK?)

  11. and, most unlikely of all, she's cancelling brexit (or decided to hold a second referendum on the deal).
Given Boris is due to be making a statement on North Korea later, I think 4 is pretty likely; 7 or 8 both feel likely-ish too. Obviously there's still a glimmer of hope in my flinty old heart for 11, but it's only a glimmer... Half an hour till we find out! I'm going back to watching Politics Twitter doing its nut :)

ETA: Oh shit, it's a general election. So, this is a rubber-stamp-for-brexit election. We know brexit is a fucking stupid idea; we also know you'll vote for us because Corbyn.
miss_s_b: (Default)
miss_s_b: (Politics: Democracy)
I'm not convinced that it's to do with brexit, despite her speech. Labour have rubber-stamped or abstained on every single vote. She was getting brexit through with no trouble whatsoever, aside from noisy shouting from us and the SNP. Yes, she is gambling that Corbyn's crapness will give her a big majority. But it is a gamble; there's no certainties in politics.

There is one thing that's standing out to me, though... up to 20 tory MPs are under threat of prosecution. TMay has a working majority of 17. If even half of those look like successful prosecutions, that's potentially majority wiped out. TMay is going to know whether or not these MPs are guilty.

Calling an election now means that they won't be MPs by the time prosecutions go through. They'll quietly retire, and the news media will not pay as much attention to prosecutions of ex-MPs. The polls have the tories on a stonking lead. I think she's calculated it's worth the gamble. I'll say this for her: she's got massive brass balls. Whether that's enough... I hope it isn't.

Note to Self:

Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 09:42 pm
miss_s_b: Vince Cable's happy face (Politics: Vince - happy face)
Having a big angry rant on twitter when you're literally drooping from tiredness after a long day's lib demmery including a branch meeting is not the most sensible thing to do...

Off to bed now, peeps. Laters.

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Hello! I'm Jennie (known to many as SB, due to my handle, or The Yorksher Gob because of my old blog's name). This blog is my public face; click here for a list of all the other places you can find me on t'interwebs.

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